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Results Analysis


One problem with the results as presented is that they are normalized on the results of the fastest rider. Different riders show up on different weeks -- if Miguel Indurain or Bruce Hildebrand showed up at Old La Honda and rode it in 14 minutes, everyone would have scored 25% lower, which wouldn't be fair.

So a calculation was done of how riders who finished at least two hillclimbs did relative to their average in each week. Some weeks, most riders did better than their averages, but other weeks most did worse.

The following is the factor the average rider did relative to his average, with some extra weight given to the results of riders who did a large number of climbs. Also listed are the inverses, equal to one divided by the factors:

w  climb      factor   inverse
1  Montebello 0.956475 1.045506 (Kurreck)
2  Kings      0.988103 1.012041 (Connelly)
3  Page       1.007119 0.992931 (Kurreck)
4  OLH        1.002246 0.997759 (Connelly)
5  Diablo     1.033274 0.967798 (Duffy)
6  Tam        1.020739 0.979683 (Connelly)
7  E Hwy 9    1.011486 0.988644 (Connelly)
8  Mt Ham     1.036048 0.965206 (Ott)
9  Bohlman    0.965587 1.035639 (Connelly)
10 Quimby     0.964022 1.037321 (Connelly)
11 H Coe      1.037174 0.964158 (Connelly)
12 Sierra     0.988255 1.011884 (Heerwagen)
To adjust scores based on this calculation, multiply them by the inverses of the appropriate weeks. For example, Tim Kurreck scored 100 points at Montebello. His adjusted score is 104.7. Phil Duffy scored 100 points at Mt Diablo. His adjusted score becomes 96.77. These adjustements are for personal interest only -- in the standings both Tim and Phil still receive 100 points.

An interesting observation is scores were low for the two steepest climbs so far, Bohlman and Quimby. This may be because many riders were undergeared for these climbs and thus rode below their potentials. At Montebello and Kings, in which there was a group working together at the front for much of the way, most riders also did below average relative to the first to the top. On the other hand, at Tamalpais the 4 rolling miles on Ridgecrest seems to have tightened up the results a bit.

Note the week average is also listed. Like the rider scores, this is adjusted for how the riders who showed up did relative to their averages. It depends both on how riders did relative to their average and the nature of the riders who showed up. The "average average" is the average rider's average adjusted score for riders who showed in a particular week. Both of these are attempts to assess the average speed of riders who showed up during a given week.


Using these adjustment factors, the weekly scores for each rider (alphabetical order) become as follows:

name                club                  sex  #    week01 week02 week03 week04 week05 week06 week07 week08 week09 week10 week11 week12
week average:                                       078.06 076.62 073.59 076.89 079.30 083.45 078.46 076.62 082.72 080.19 079.86 080.06
average average:                                    079.58 077.11 073.36 076.89 077.49 081.97 077.79 075.48 084.45 082.72 077.86 080.67

"Anders,Brad"       Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    1         0 095.53      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Alafouzos,John      Team_Adventure        m    12   074.49 079.38 079.29 080.60 082.31 079.24 078.64 077.95 081.79 080.61 082.19 078.58
Anderson,Don        unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 087.84      0      0      0      0
Anderson,Mark       Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    9         0 082.74 084.06 083.84      0 084.32 084.12 081.12      0      0 083.14 083.39
Axelrod,Valery      Western_Wheelers      m    3         0 085.55 087.40      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 084.67

Baker,James         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    2    072.62 068.51      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Baker,Tom           Sytax                 m    1         0 068.47      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Baldwin,Brad        Fremont_Freewheeler   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 080.22
Barmettler,Bart     Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    3         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 095.44      0 094.98 091.60      0
Bayner,Alex         unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 074.89      0      0      0      0

Bell,Jeff           Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    2         0      0      0 086.14      0  coord      0      0      0      0      0      0
Benishin,Liz        Alto_Velo/ALEVE       w    10        0      0 078.39 076.79 077.97 079.30 079.27 080.47 080.02 081.66 079.46 078.96
Bergstend,Don       Team_Extreme          m    1    094.69      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Blair,Steve         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    3    084.53 084.17      0 083.50      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Blake,John          unattached            m    1    079.96      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Blake,Susie         unattached            w    2    084.81      0 077.13      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Bloom,Greg          unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 083.94      0      0      0
Bone,Richard        Western_Wheelers      m    10   072.80 076.77      0 074.53 080.08      0 077.45 076.42 076.38 071.27 079.77 079.27
Brenninger,Paul     unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 075.21      0
Bunting,George      unattached            m    3    062.31 060.62 058.18      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Burwald,Matt        Cactus                m    1    054.13      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Butts,Fred          Team_FRED             m    7    059.61      0      0 063.75 062.49      0 061.06 061.47      0 060.64      0 060.06
Capitolo,Greg       unattached            m    1         0      0 076.51      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Caragio,Mark        MAPEI_CLAS            m    2    054.13      0 067.79      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Carry,Mark          Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    2         0 065.43      0      0      0      0      0 067.54      0      0      0      0

Casseres,David      unattached            m    1         0 060.62      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Cawthorn,Brian      Team_FRED             m    1         0      0      0      0 063.73      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Chase,Geoff         Team_Valley           m    1         0 088.80      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Chency,Brittain     unattached            m    1         0 069.35      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Clem,Mark           Santa_Clara_Universit m    2    073.27 075.10      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Connelly,Dan        Stanford/Wheelsmith   m    10   103.77 101.20 096.58 099.78      0 097.97 098.86      0 103.56 103.73 096.42 100.21
Cownery,John        Western_Wheelers      m    1         0      0 041.17      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Crockett,Richard    Apple/VeloXS          m    1         0      0      0 087.29      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Curran,Lisa         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       w    3         0      0      0      0      0      0 072.37 070.18      0      0      0 073.66
Cutts,Christopher   unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0 089.00      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Davis,Darrel        unattached            m    1         0      0 068.73      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Deal,Steve          unattached            m    1         0      0 095.64      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Duffy,Phil          Valley_Spokesmen      m    1         0      0      0      0 096.78      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Eaton,Jim           Western_Wheelers      m    1         0      0 051.03      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Elgart,Linda        Alto_Velo/ALEVE       w    1         0 077.23      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Emmel,John          Team_FRED             m    2    083.62      0      0      0      0      0 081.62      0      0      0      0      0
Endo,Jeff           unattached            m    1    090.43      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Everman,Tom         unattached            m    1    061.29      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Farmer,Dana         unattached            w    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 074.08      0      0      0      0
Fernandez,Rouel     Cosmic_Bike_Buddies   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 039.90      0      0      0      0

Fisher,David        Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    6    076.87 076.33 072.11 075.01 075.49      0 077.20      0      0      0      0      0
Fox,Kevin           Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    3    096.64      0      0      0      0      0  coord  coord      0      0      0      0
Fulton,Dick         unattached            m    3         0      0      0 080.22 079.61      0 079.57      0      0      0      0      0
Gatch,Rod           San_Jose_Bicycle_Club m    10   088.12 086.96 085.12      0 090.65 089.07 087.58 085.81 089.56 081.01 082.83      0
Gellin,Gary         Team_Hermes           m    1         0      0      0 070.77      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Gilbert,Rory        unattached            m    1    066.32      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Gloli,Jim           Valley_Spokesmen      m    1         0      0      0      0 092.39      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Haas,Diane          unattached            w    1    054.13      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Hanles,Mike         unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 088.83      0      0      0      0
Hargrove,Val        Bergmeisters_Bicycl   m    1         0      0      0 080.60      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Haughey,Jim         Western_Wheelers      m    2    078.86 078.24      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Hawley,Lorin        Apple/VeloXS          m    1         0      0      0 097.44      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Heerwagen,Belinda   Mako                  w    2         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 085.42      0      0 087.24
Heerwagen,Tyler     Olympic_Club          m    2         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 096.95      0      0 101.19
Heney,Kevin         unattached            m    1         0      0      0 069.31      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Herms,Cheryl        Team_Adventure        w    3         0 070.28      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 074.98      0 073.80
Herms,Richard       Team_Adventure        m    9         0 089.46      0 086.64 084.66 084.19      0 091.17 087.08 091.38 086.49 088.71
Hertenstein,Tom     Stanford/Wheelsmith   m    1         0 098.32      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Hetchings,Matt      unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 074.31      0
Hogan,Seana         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       w    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 084.16      0      0      0      0

Hogg,Andrew         unattached            m    1    062.49      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Hopping,Damien      unattached            m    3         0      0      0 076.96 050.74      0 068.97      0      0      0      0      0
Hsu,Brian           unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0 092.65      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Hurkmans,Henry      Fremont_Freewheeler   m    6         0 070.58 076.13 073.73      0      0 069.29      0      0 069.28 076.50      0
Hutchinson,Marcia   Alto_Velo/ALEVE       w    5    069.70      0 065.92 065.76 067.39      0 066.34      0      0      0      0      0

Johnson,Kelly       Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    1         0 089.40      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Johnson,Kim         CycloVets             w    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 069.46      0      0      0      0
Kallewaard,Dan      Fremont_Freewheeler   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 083.76
Kaplan,Jonathan     Western_Wheelers      m    1         0 060.84      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Keene,Charles       unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 063.33      0

Kinell,Don          Cosmic_Bike_Buddies   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 040.95      0      0      0      0
Kitta,Geo           Penn_Velo             m    2         0 096.86 091.59      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Kolek,Robert        Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    1         0      0 086.29      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Kurreck,Tim         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    2    104.55      0 099.29      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Lafayette,Andre     unattached            m    2         0      0      0      0 085.98      0 083.49      0      0      0      0      0

Lafferty,Greg       GCC                   m    1    092.26      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Lawrence,Jeff       Reno_Wheelmen         m    3    073.63      0      0      0      0      0      0 072.84      0      0      0 071.38
Leary,Brendan       Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    6    081.44 079.05 079.23 078.11 077.26      0 077.42      0      0      0      0      0
Liddle,Marshall     Cyclismo              m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 088.71      0      0      0      0
Lillard,James       West_Coast            m    1         0      0      0 093.33      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Linford,Gary        Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    1    087.98      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Liou,Chris          unattached            m    1    093.36      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Loyd,Steve          unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 076.46      0      0      0      0
Mansour,Dean        Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    1         0      0      0 068.95      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Mansperger,Bill     unattached            m    1         0      0 041.17      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Martinez,Jonathan   Team_Adventure        m    4         0      0      0      0      0 076.36      0 077.51      0 080.14      0 073.69
Maurer,Joseph       Good_Times            m    7         0 071.08      0 068.77 074.64      0 072.62      0      0 069.52 069.46 070.55
Maurer,Sebastean    Good_Times            m    3         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 066.32 061.20 060.37
McCleary,Jackie     unattached            w    1    079.43      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
McCleary,Tom        Colored_Spokes        m    3    086.33      0 082.68      0 086.40      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

McDermand,Bob       San_Jose_Bicycle_Club m    9    082.12 078.67 079.39      0 080.24      0 078.80      0 083.88 085.26 081.42 082.39
McGill,Mary         LMHH                  w    2    066.93      0 074.24      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
McGorman,Frank      Bergmeisters_Bicycl   m    2         0      0 076.63 082.84      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
McKinley,Paul       GAN                   m    1    077.29      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
McKnight,Keith      Cosmic_Bike_Buddies   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 078.17      0      0      0

Miller,Ed           unattached            m    11   082.05 081.55 082.33 081.55 084.31 083.22 082.94 083.60 084.39 081.90 080.62      0
Morales,Rodolfo     unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0 074.21      0      0      0      0      0
Nix,Mark            Team_FRED             m    1         0      0      0 076.45      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
O'Hara,Tim          Fremont_Freewheeler   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 083.50
Ott,Chris           Big_C                 m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 096.52      0      0      0      0

Paulsen,Anne        Western_Wheelers      w    4         0      0 060.87 059.69      0      0 061.26      0 053.84      0      0      0
Payne,Andy          Fremont_Freewheeler   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 070.67
Pereira,Lucas       unattached            m    6         0      0 066.33 059.48 067.29 069.53 068.30 064.87      0      0      0      0
Petroski,Pete       Western_Wheelers      m    4    075.91 075.41      0 074.53 074.07      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Reddy,Achut         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    3         0 071.58 071.27 075.34      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Richards,John       unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 076.16      0
Rodamaker,Mark      Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    5    080.93 079.77 080.16      0 078.27      0 080.03      0      0      0      0      0
Saenz,Alfred        Valley_Cyclery        m    2    094.10      0 088.62      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Schatzman,John      Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    3         0      0      0      0      0      0 084.65      0 085.80 085.12      0      0
Schaub,Bill         unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 071.35      0      0      0      0

Schaub,Darlene      unattached            w    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 072.15      0      0      0      0
Schimmerling,Ernest Team_Ibuprofen        m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 087.48
Sewill,Rick         Apple/VeloXS          m    1         0      0      0 071.46      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Sheetz,Chris        unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 082.42      0      0      0
Shiff,Michael       unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 077.37      0      0      0      0

Shigamoto,Kiyoshi   Team_FRED             m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 084.02      0      0      0      0
Sialm,Philippe      unattached            m    1         0 085.99      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Smith,Wayne         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    9         0      0 078.02 072.76 079.79 077.87 079.13 073.48 075.56 075.81 081.02      0
Sokolsky,Larry      unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 066.62      0      0      0
Sonck,Stef          unattached            m    1         0 062.89      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Spiegel,Carolyn     Western_Wheelers      w    1         0      0 041.17      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Stern,Laura         unattached            w    1    094.00      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Sternberg,Ted       Team_Ibuprofen        m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 076.24
Straub,Ken          Western_Wheelers      m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0 080.82      0      0      0      0      0
Studenicka,Todd     unattached            m    2         0      0      0      0      0      0 084.34 086.13      0      0      0      0

Tedder,Ron          unattached            m    1         0      0      0 070.29      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Thorpe,Crystal      Western_Wheelers      w    1         0 062.65      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Titel,Barbara       unattached            w    3    061.37 060.62 058.49      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Vigil,Pete          unattached            m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0 089.03      0      0      0
Viksne/Caltagirone  unattached            b    1         0 063.53      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0

Waltjen,Lance       Delta_Velo            m    7         0      0 088.58 087.51 092.80      0 088.56      0 089.74 089.24      0 091.71
Watson,Sterling     Western_Wheelers      m    1         0 060.62      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Wilder,Mike         San_Jose_Bicycle_Club m    4         0 080.60      0      0 082.62      0      0      0      0      0 083.21 084.85
Wiley,John          Gunn                  m    1         0      0 087.40      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Wilkinson,Jim       Team_Adventure        m    7         0      0      0      0 091.81 091.33 087.50 091.12 094.63 094.11 089.02      0

Willin,Jamie        Olympic_Club          m    2    094.60 097.80      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Winterfield,Kevin   Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    8     coord  coord 091.01      0      0 093.25 093.27 096.16      0      0 093.82 091.29
Womer,David         Alto_Velo/ALEVE       m    1    099.93      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0
Wong,Leo            unattached            m    3         0 084.94      0      0      0      0 087.14 083.56      0      0      0      0
Zaharis,Tom         TNT                   m    1         0      0      0      0      0      0      0 082.25      0      0      0      0

Ziegler,Dave        Western_Wheelers      m    1         0      0 068.65      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0      0